STATUS:  IOP commences midday Sunday

This IOP focuses on the passage of a compact mid-tropospheric wave on Sunday night.  It now appears that shear will begin increasing around midday tomorrow (Sunday 13 March).  This will be followed by an increase in CAPE, albeit to rather mediocre values.  With wave passage between midnight and sunrise Sunday night/Monday morning, there could be convection.  We will commence observations midday Sunday with serial sounding launches from the Belle Mina supersite, with extensive radar, surface, and sounding observations beginning later in the day, and lasting through the night.

The IOP may be extended through much of the day Monday if the current hints of lingering CAPE and shear with a chance of convection persist.

We are still monitoring the evolution of a cold front event on Tuesday when a combination of shear and CAPE supportive of supercells will exist, but it is possible that low-level vertical motion may be insufficient to initiate convection.  There will be additional discussion at the Sunday briefing to design the deployment, as well as to consider observations that bridge that gap between the Sunday night and late Tuesday systems.