STATUS: IOP Sunday 13 March

We continue the IOP declared yesterday.  The Sunday evening/night event still appears marginal, but the overall idea of a compact mid-level wave passage,  an attendant brief increase in flow and shear through the depth, and an increase in CAPE to perhaps 300 J/kg, is enough to motivate us to observe the passage of this system.  We will begin observing the “ramp-up” in CAPE and shear around midday Sunday, with operations likely through part/much of the night.

The next system is a cold front that should pas through northern AL on ~Tuesday.  Significant CAPE, deep shear, and storm-relative helicity (SRH) should accompany the passage of this front.  On Sat and Sunday, we will evaluate the need to extend the current IOP through Tuesday.