We are still watching the system that is about to dig into Mexico (with thickness < 540 dm well south in Mexico on the operational GFS this morning!). It should lift northeast and weaken rapidly toward the end of the week. At this time, it appears unlikely that this will allow for tornado-favoring wind profiles, but it’s too early to dismiss the threat completely.
Mid-month still looks more interesting.
We are continuing to watch the system that will cut off in south Texas early in the week. It appears it will weaken and lift northeast as a negatively-tilted wave, with possible favorable shear in the Thur-Fri time frame. Right now, the flow is forecast to be unidirectional, but details may change in the coming days.
We anticipate an IOP decision around Monday.
There may be two back-to-back IOPs in mid-March… one for the lifting trough, and a second one for a more promising looking system a few days later.
NOAA has published a Federal Funding Opportunity announcement for VORTEX-SE in grants.gov. To find the text of the announcement, follow these steps:
1. At grants.gov, use the search feature to locate the announcement NOAA-OAR-OWAQ-2016-2004838
2. Select the announcement package
3. Click the “Package” tab, do the registration and press “Submit”
4. On the resulting page, in the lower left, click the “Download instructions” button.
Status: IOP watch
We are monitoring the evolution of the forecast for a strong system coming onshore and progged to become a cutoff low in the vicinity of south TX. An IOP decision will likely be made late this weekend.
28 Feb 2016
STATUS: IOP watch continues for Thur 4 Mar operations.
A shakedown mission will likely occur Tuesday evening/night for participants who are present in Northern AL. A second wave should move through the region on Thur. Currently, the warm sector looks too cool/stable with the Thur system, but the forecast will evolve and bears watching.
Mid-March, commencing ~10th, looks active as a strong Pacific jet starts moving into the US.
Sat 27 Feb 2016
Status: IOP Watch for possible IOP commencing Thur 3 March
As expected yesterday, the PI’s have agreed to cancel the IOP watch for Tuesday because this system appears to be too marginal in terms of low-level shear and CAPE.
The PI’s decided to commence a new IOP watch for Thursday. Details are murky concerning the track and intensity of this wave, with a consequent murkiness in expectations concerning the warm sector location and CAPE.
Investigators who will be northern AL for other reasons are encouraged to communicate about possible informal “shake-down” deployments between now and Thursday, especially with the expected marginal convection on Tue afternoon/evening.
On this site, you will find blog blurbs about the VORTEX-SE Spring 2016 Field Campaign as it unfolds, as well as news about what is being observed and learned. For field participants, this site also has a page of links to data that might be useful in realtime, and observing platform status. By clicking on the Status tab, the current daily status of the campaign can be seen.