STATUS: Down

The pattern of a ridge in the west and a trough in the east continues today, with a major winter weather event in store for the Northeast.  This pattern is associated with cool, stable weather in Alabama, so VORTEX-SE is still down.

However, we still see signs of a pattern change beginning toward this coming weekend.  It looks like this pattern change will involve the western ridge building east across the southern US. This means that the winds aloft will be weakening, and the atmosphere warming.  It also means that Gulf moisture will start to creep northward.  This low-level moisture is a key ingredient for severe weather, but the weakening upper winds reduce the chance of severe weather because the shear is reduced.

It is fairly likely that the pattern that follows will feature stronger flow aloft and the continued presence of low-level moisture, and thus CAPE.  So the VORTEX-SE scientists will resume their daily weather discussions via the internet tomorrow, watching for the development of potentially research-worthy weather up to seven days away.