STATUS: IOP Watch

Most numerical guidance still points to a frontal passage on Thur 24 March through northern AL, with some disagreement about the time of day.  Shear and CAPE should be increasing through Wednesday night and early morning Thur ahead of this event.  Convection is nearly certain owing to strong lift.

At this time, low-level moisture looks like it will be sufficient for perhaps ~300 J/kg CAPE, and this is close to the climatological threshold for QLCS tornadoes in AL.

A final IOP go/no-go decision will be made at the 1 PM briefing tomorrow (Mon 21st).  For those thinking about travel plans, we will want to be observing by the early morning hours of Thur 24 March.  We will have to conjure a plan starting at the Wednesday briefing, and perhaps also later via SASSI chat/GeoWhiteboard.