STATUS: IOP Watch

We continue to watch the wave and cold front that will affect the northern AL region around Thur/Fri of next week (24-25 March).  If current guidance is correct, shear will be sufficient, but CAPE will be marginal.  The latter is because moisture is not returning strongly off of the Gulf of Mexico after the passage of a cold front tomorrow.

If the models trend toward better moisture return, this IOP becomes more likely.  The IOP decision likely will be made on Sunday or Monday (20 or 21 March).