STATUS: IOP today

Mobile radar deployment is underway in the NE Louisiana subdomain, with scanning beginning about 2:30 PM. The NOAA P-3 research aircraft will be taking off around that same time, arriving in the subdomain area around 3:30 PM. Mobile and fixed soundings will be launched this afternoon.

Our expectations are very much in line with the SPC Day1 outlook. There may be isolated or scattered storms in the “warm sector” across Louisiana by mid-afternoon. These will be very hard to predict, but we will study any that happen in our subdomain. They may have rotation, but it’s not clear how persistent individual cells will be. The CAM forecast models don’t seem to be depicting long-lived supercells for reasons unknown.

A more linear, more predictable band of storms will organize in far southern AR by mid-afternoon, and sag southward through the evening hours. It should be near the AR/LA border around 3-5 PM, and near Monroe by 5-7 PM. Initially, this band may not be dominated by cold outflow, and so there is some potential for non-classic tornadoes during its first few hours. These tornadoes that are not associated with classic, isolated supercells are a special interest of VORTEX-SE. Toward evening, the band will likely accelerate south and be dominated by cold outflow, with diminishing tornado potential.

So we will probably have a good case to test new ideas about combining multiple radars of various types to obtain better characterization of the flow features in the storms that may promote or reduce tornado potential.