Forecasters have long sought to predict storm hazards through their relationships with ingredients found in the surrounding storm environment. Decades of research has identified patterns and ranges of variables that dictate changes in tornado likelihood, such as high humidity, sources of lift, and large vertical wind shear near the ground and aloft to support storm rotation. A wealth of research funded by VORTEX-USA has continued this research thread by better understanding the details of tornado-environment relationships, particularly in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). For example, rapid sampling of the PBL uncovered relationships between terrain and land cover to local enhancements in near-ground vertical wind shear that increase tornado potential. Other studies verified the presence of near-ground turbulent flow structures that may illuminate how some tornadoes form. More broadly, numerous integrated observations and modeling efforts better defined details of low-level wind profiles and destabilization pathways that relate to tornado potential in both supercells and linear systems. This work is leading to refined conceptual models and forecasting methods, improved post-processing of output from weather prediction models to predict tornado potential, and guidance for developing the next-generation observing networks designed to observe the PBL to better predict tornadoes.
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