STATUS: IOP WATCH (new)<\/p>\n
In the midday conference call today, the VORTEX-SE researchers decided to not conduct observations on Tue 21 Mar, but are now watching a likely IOP opportunity toward next weekend. \u00a0(If you haven’t been following these messages, “IOP” stands for “Intensive Observing Period”… that’s when the researchers hit the field with all their observing equipment.)<\/p>\n
The Tuesday forecast illustrates one of the many challenges the researchers face. \u00a0Most of the VORTEX-SE researchers travel to Alabama to conduct observations because staying there for two months or more would consume resources better spent on the science. \u00a0The funds support about four IOPs. \u00a0And so they have to weigh the likelihood that an event will provide enough data to generate some new knowledge, and whether there will be better opportunities as March and April go on.<\/p>\n
So on Tuesday, there will be enough CAPE around to support thunderstorms, if they were initiated. \u00a0(CAPE is “Convective Available Potential Energy” which measures how much updraft air will be accelerated because of the difference between the updraft temperature and the temperature outside the updraft.) \u00a0But, because of an upper ridge, the winds will be fairly weak through the whole depth of the atmosphere. \u00a0One can never rule out tornadoes completely, but given our current understanding of tornadic storms and the environmental conditions that support them, this looks like an extremely-low probability day. \u00a0If we had unlimited resources and could observe 24\/7 for a number of months, we could probably catch one or two surprising events… and there’s probably a lot to be learned from them when they happen. \u00a0But we have to spend the research funds in a way that can give us the most new knowledge for the buck.<\/p>\n
Looking ahead, we see another challenge. \u00a0The forecast models are pretty adamant that a strong wave and associated cold front will move through the Southeast toward this weekend. \u00a0Right now, the major models are in very poor agreement about the timing of this, and individual models are in poor agreement with themselves from one model run to the next. \u00a0It looks like an IOP is quite likely for this system, and it will be up to the researchers and their forecast team at the University of Alabama-Huntsville and NWS-Huntsville to try to get a good enough picture of the timing so that the researchers can assemble in Huntsville and plan the details of their deployment. \u00a0Stay tuned…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
STATUS: IOP WATCH (new) In the midday conference call today, the VORTEX-SE researchers decided to not conduct observations on Tue 21 Mar, but are now watching a likely IOP opportunity… <\/p>\n