{"id":442,"date":"2026-01-13T11:59:13","date_gmt":"2026-01-13T17:59:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/tgalarneau\/?page_id=442"},"modified":"2026-03-30T11:32:51","modified_gmt":"2026-03-30T16:32:51","slug":"swerve-forecast-links","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/tgalarneau\/swerve-forecast-links\/","title":{"rendered":"SWERVE Forecast Links"},"content":{"rendered":"

Participants enter their forecasts here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Experimental ML-based daily severe weather forecasts<\/h4>\n
    \n
  1. AI\/ML-based Day-8 forecast products<\/a><\/li>\n
  2. NSSL GEFS-ML Days 7-15 forecasts<\/a><\/li>\n
  3. NSSL GEFS-ML D(prog)\/dt: Day-8<\/a> |\u00a0Day-9<\/a> |\u00a0Day-10<\/a> | Days 8-10<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Deterministic GFS\/AIFS\/Graphcast\/Pangu Forecast Intercomparison<\/h4>\n
      \n
    1. 500 hPa Z and Wind<\/a><\/li>\n
    2. 850 hPa Z and Wind<\/a><\/li>\n
    3. SLP, 2-m Dewpoint, and 10-m Wind<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Experimental ML-based forecasts (from original sources)<\/strong><\/h4>\n
        \n
      1. NSSL-ML Daily Total Severe Probability (through Day-14)<\/a><\/li>\n
      2. NSSL-ML 3-day Severe Probability (through Day-15)<\/a><\/li>\n
      3. CSU-MLP Daily Severe Weather Forecasts (through Day-8)<\/a><\/li>\n
      4. CIPS\/CSU\/SPC Daily Aggregate Severe Comparison (through Day-8)<\/a><\/li>\n
      5. OU AINWP ML Daily Severe Weather Probability (through Day-8)<\/a><\/li>\n
      6. NCAR AINWP Daily Convective Hazard Forecasts (through Day-8)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Experimental forecast products for Weeks 2-3 range<\/strong><\/h4>\n
          \n
        1. NSSL-ML Daily Total Severe Probability (through Day-14)<\/a><\/li>\n
        2. NSSL-ML 3-day Severe Probability (through Day-15)<\/a><\/li>\n
        3. CPC Experimental Dynamical-Statistical Week 2 Severe Weather Forecast<\/a><\/li>\n
        4. CPC Experimental GEFS Subseasonal Severe Weather Forecast Guidance<\/a><\/li>\n
        5. CPC Experimental Hazards Outlook Days 8-14: Temperature<\/a> || Precipitation<\/a> || Wind<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Subjective Evaluation Activities (relevant Qualtrics survey question numbers are indicated)<\/h4>\n
            \n
          1. ALL:<\/strong> SWERVE Forecast Discussions<\/a><\/li>\n
          2. Q4-Q10:<\/strong> Tornado\/hail\/wind PPH, SPC 1630 UTC outlooks, and SPC watches<\/a><\/li>\n
          3. Q4-Q5<\/strong>: Day-8<\/a> forecast comparison<\/li>\n
          4. Q6-Q7<\/strong>: Day-9<\/a> and Day-10<\/a> forecast comparison<\/li>\n
          5. Q8-Q10:<\/strong> 3-day window Days 8-10<\/a> forecast comparison<\/li>\n
          6. SWERVE group\/individual Forecast comparison: Q4-Q7:<\/strong> Daily<\/a> || Q8-Q10:<\/strong> 3-day<\/a><\/li>\n
          7. Q11-Q14:<\/strong> Tornado\/hail PPH and Effective Area (E)<\/a> verification for weeks 2 & 3<\/li>\n
          8. Q11-Q14:<\/strong> Inventory of enhanced tornado\/hail days in current year<\/a><\/li>\n
          9. Q11-Q14:<\/strong> SWERVE participant week 2 & 3 forecasts and skill scores<\/a><\/li>\n
          10. Q11-Q14:<\/strong> SWERVE weeks 2 & 3\u00a0 forecast products (AOML, CPC, GEFS-Enh)<\/a><\/li>\n
          11. Q11-Q14:<\/strong> NSSL GEFS-ML Week 2 forecasts<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

            Operational Severe Weather Outlooks<\/strong><\/h4>\n
              \n
            1. SPC Convective Outlooks (through Day-8)<\/a><\/li>\n
            2. CPC Temperature Outlook: Days 6-10<\/a> || Days 8-14<\/a> || Weeks 3-4<\/a><\/li>\n
            3. CPC Precipitation Outlook: Days 6-10<\/a> || Days 8-14<\/a> || Weeks 3-4<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

              Deterministic and Ensemble Forecast Model Output<\/strong><\/h4>\n
                \n
              1. NSSL GEFS-based SOM 500 hPa Z Forecasts (through Day-35)<\/a><\/li>\n
              2. NSSL-SPC CPC Temperature Analog Severe Weather Probabilities<\/a><\/li>\n
              3. NCEP\/SPC CFS Severe Weather Guidance Dashboard (through Day-45)<\/a><\/li>\n
              4. NIU Extended-Range Severe Weather Environment Forecasts<\/a><\/li>\n
              5. GEFS Severe Weather Environments Dashboard (NIU)<\/a><\/li>\n
              6. NCEP GEFS North American Weather Regimes<\/a><\/li>\n
              7. NEXLAB Forecast Maps (Dupage)<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n
              8. GEFS Maps and Probabilities (Colorado State)<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n
              9. GEFS Probabilities (WPC)<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n
              10. Deterministic GFS maps (A. Bentley)<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n
              11. SHiELD model (GFDL)<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n
              12. Pivotal weather<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n
              13. Tropical Tidbits<\/span><\/a><\/li>\n
              14. CPC Temperature and Precipitation Analogs (Days 8-14)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                Teleconnection Indices<\/strong><\/h4>\n
                  \n
                1. CU-NSSL-SPC NPJ Phase Diagram<\/a><\/li>\n
                2. ENSO (CPC)<\/a><\/li>\n
                3. MJO (CPC)<\/a><\/li>\n
                4. MJO index intercomparison (NSSL)<\/a><\/li>\n
                5. AAO, AO, PNA, NAO (CPC)<\/a><\/li>\n
                6. Blocking (CPC)<\/a><\/li>\n
                7. GWO (NIU)<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                  Verification Links<\/strong><\/h4>\n
                    \n
                  1. SPC storm reports<\/a><\/li>\n
                  2. SPC storm reports display prototype<\/a><\/li>\n
                  3. NSSL Severe Weather Monitoring<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                    Observations Links<\/strong><\/h4>\n
                      \n
                    1. DuPage radar, satellite, and surface observations<\/a><\/li>\n
                    2. Upper-Air Charts (SPC)<\/a><\/li>\n
                    3. Soundings (SPC)<\/a><\/li>\n
                    4. NCAR\/RAL real-time observations<\/a><\/li>\n
                    5. NCAR\/RAL Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project<\/a><\/li>\n
                    6. OSPO SST Anomaly Charts<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

                       <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

                      Participants enter their forecasts here. Experimental ML-based daily severe weather forecasts AI\/ML-based Day-8 forecast products NSSL GEFS-ML Days 7-15 forecasts NSSL GEFS-ML D(prog)\/dt: Day-8 |\u00a0Day-9 |\u00a0Day-10 | Days 8-10 Deterministic… <\/p>\n

                      Read more \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":182,"featured_media":0,"parent":0,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-442","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/tgalarneau\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/442","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/tgalarneau\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/tgalarneau\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/tgalarneau\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/182"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/tgalarneau\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=442"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/tgalarneau\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/442\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":510,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/tgalarneau\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/442\/revisions\/510"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/tgalarneau\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=442"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}