SWERVE Forecast Links

Participants enter their forecasts here.

Experimental ML-based daily severe weather forecasts

  1. AI/ML-based Day-8 forecast products
  2. NSSL GEFS-ML Days 7-15 forecasts
  3. NSSL GEFS-ML D(prog)/dt: Day-8 | Day-9 | Day-10 | Days 8-10

Deterministic GFS/AIFS/Graphcast/Pangu Forecast Intercomparison

  1. 500 hPa Z and Wind
  2. 850 hPa Z and Wind
  3. SLP, 2-m Dewpoint, and 10-m Wind

Experimental ML-based forecasts (from original sources)

  1. NSSL-ML Daily Total Severe Probability (through Day-14)
  2. NSSL-ML 3-day Severe Probability (through Day-15)
  3. CSU-MLP Daily Severe Weather Forecasts (through Day-8)
  4. CIPS/CSU/SPC Daily Aggregate Severe Comparison (through Day-8)
  5. OU AINWP ML Daily Severe Weather Probability (through Day-8)
  6. NCAR AINWP Daily Convective Hazard Forecasts (through Day-8)

Experimental forecast products for Weeks 2-3 range

  1. NSSL-ML Daily Total Severe Probability (through Day-14)
  2. NSSL-ML 3-day Severe Probability (through Day-15)
  3. CPC Experimental Dynamical-Statistical Week 2 Severe Weather Forecast
  4. CPC Experimental GEFS Subseasonal Severe Weather Forecast Guidance
  5. CPC Experimental Hazards Outlook Days 8-14: Temperature || Precipitation || Wind

Subjective Evaluation Activities (relevant Qualtrics survey question numbers are indicated)

  1. ALL: SWERVE Forecast Discussions
  2. Q4-Q10: Tornado/hail/wind PPH, SPC 1630 UTC outlooks, and SPC watches
  3. Q4-Q5: Day-8 forecast comparison
  4. Q6-Q7: Day-9 and Day-10 forecast comparison
  5. Q8-Q10: 3-day window Days 8-10 forecast comparison
  6. SWERVE group/individual Forecast comparison: Q4-Q7: Daily || Q8-Q10: 3-day
  7. Q11-Q14: Tornado/hail PPH and Effective Area (E) verification for weeks 2 & 3
  8. Q11-Q14: Inventory of enhanced tornado/hail days in current year
  9. Q11-Q14: SWERVE participant week 2 & 3 forecasts and skill scores
  10. Q11-Q14: SWERVE weeks 2 & 3  forecast products (AOML, CPC, GEFS-Enh)
  11. Q11-Q14: NSSL GEFS-ML Week 2 forecasts

Operational Severe Weather Outlooks

  1. SPC Convective Outlooks (through Day-8)
  2. CPC Temperature Outlook: Days 6-10 || Days 8-14 || Weeks 3-4
  3. CPC Precipitation Outlook: Days 6-10 || Days 8-14 || Weeks 3-4

Deterministic and Ensemble Forecast Model Output

  1. NSSL GEFS-based SOM 500 hPa Z Forecasts (through Day-35)
  2. NSSL-SPC CPC Temperature Analog Severe Weather Probabilities
  3. NCEP/SPC CFS Severe Weather Guidance Dashboard (through Day-45)
  4. NIU Extended-Range Severe Weather Environment Forecasts
  5. GEFS Severe Weather Environments Dashboard (NIU)
  6. NCEP GEFS North American Weather Regimes
  7. NEXLAB Forecast Maps (Dupage)
  8. GEFS Maps and Probabilities (Colorado State)
  9. GEFS Probabilities (WPC)
  10. Deterministic GFS maps (A. Bentley)
  11. SHiELD model (GFDL)
  12. Pivotal weather
  13. Tropical Tidbits
  14. CPC Temperature and Precipitation Analogs (Days 8-14)

Teleconnection Indices

  1. CU-NSSL-SPC NPJ Phase Diagram
  2. ENSO (CPC)
  3. MJO (CPC)
  4. MJO index intercomparison (NSSL)
  5. AAO, AO, PNA, NAO (CPC)
  6. Blocking (CPC)
  7. GWO (NIU)

Verification Links

  1. SPC storm reports
  2. SPC storm reports display prototype
  3. NSSL Severe Weather Monitoring

Observations Links

  1. DuPage radar, satellite, and surface observations
  2. Upper-Air Charts (SPC)
  3. Soundings (SPC)
  4. NCAR/RAL real-time observations
  5. NCAR/RAL Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project
  6. OSPO SST Anomaly Charts