Patrick Burke


Warn on Forecast Program

Job Title:Warn-on-Forecast Program Lead


Email:Email hidden; Javascript is required.


Patrick is the Program Lead for Warn-on-Forecast, a position created in 2020: Growing up in Oklahoma City sparked my passion for convective storms. I attended the University of Oklahoma and worked as a student at NSSL where I helped improve algorithms that detect mesocyclones in thunderstorms using radar data. I also was fortunate to participate in several field programs, including the Sub-VORTEX outing on May 3, 1999. With my career I wanted to work warning operations and look for efficiencies in warning operations, as we collectively strive to keep everyone safe during severe weather. That’s why I joined the National Weather Service as a forecaster, and also why my current position with the Warn-on-Forecast project is absolutely perfect for me. While Oklahoma is home, I’m also proud to have expanded my horizons beyond the Great Plains, particularly working at the Weather Prediction center for 8 years. WPC is a national center with expertise in heavy rainfall and winter weather prediction. There I learned so much more about tropical cyclones, heavy rainfall, and the spectrum of U.S. weather events. Proximity to National Weather Service Headquarters and friendships forged there and at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) should help me lead the Warn-on-Forecast System into operations in the coming years. My hobbies include travel, running, playing guitar, and I love going to museums and reading every word!

Degree (Ph.D, M.S, B.A, etc.) Major Subject University or College Name Year (YYYY) (optional)
M.S. Meteorology University of Oklahoma 2002
B.S. Meteorology University of Oklahoma 1999
Research Interests
  • Forecast Operations: Tools, methods, and communicating hazards
  • Real-world application and visualization of convection-allowing models
  • Predicting heavy rainfall and flash flooding
  • Climatologies
Professional Activities
  • Part of a management team for supporting WoF scientists and directing WoF-related research
  • Primary liaison between WoF and the National Weather Service, continually performing outreach to operational forecasters and administrators
  • Building on WoF outreach activities to reach more groups such as emergency managers and broadcast meteorologists
  • Document Warn-on-Forecast System performance and real-world application through presentations and journal articles
  • Offer consultation on research ideas, proposals, as a resident former NWS forecaster at the lab
Honors & Awards
Award Name Year
Isaac Cline Regional Award (NWS) 2019
Isaac Cline Local Awards (NWS) 2011; 2013; 2015; 2016
Dept. of Commerce Bronze Medals for superior service during blizzards, hurricanes 2015; 2016; 2018
Selected Publications

Avey, S., P. C. Burke, A. Cross, R. Hepper, H. Reeves, and P. S. SKinner, 2023: Exploring high-impact weather communication across times scales for route planning through the Aviation Weather Testbed. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 104, E810–E814.

Burke, P.C., and D.M. Schultz, 2004: A climatology of cold-season bow echoes over the continental United States. Wea. Forecasting, 19, 1061-1074.

Burke, P. C., and co-authors, 2022: Collaborating to increase warning lead time using the Warn-on-Forecast System. 30th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Santa Fe, NM, Amer. Meteor. Soc., 44,

Burke, P. C.A. LamersG. CarbinM. J. EricksonM. KleinM. ChenardJ. McNattL. Wood2022The Excessive Rainfall Outlook at the Weather Prediction Center: Operational definition, construction, and real-time collaborationBulletin of the American Meteorological Society103, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0281.1.

Clark, A. J., I. L. Jirak, B. T. Gallo, H. Knopfmeier, B. Roberts, M. Krocak, J. Vancil, K. A. Hoogewind, N. A. Dahl, E. D. Loken, D. Jahn, D. Harrison, D. Imy, P. Burke, L. Wicker, P. S. Skinner, P. L. Heinselman, P. Marsh, K. A. Wilson, A. Dean, G. J. Creager, T. A. Jones, J. Gao, Y. Wang, M. Flora, C. K. Potvin, C. A. Kerr, N. Yussouf, J. Martin. J. Guerra, B. C. Matilla, T. J. Galarneau, 2022: The 2nd real-time, virtual Spring Forecasting Experiment to advance severe weather prediction. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 103, E1114-E1116,

Gallo, B.T., and co-authors, 2024: WoFS and the wisdom of the crowd: The impact of the Warn-on-Forecast System on hourly forecasts during the 2021 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Wea. Forecasting, 39, 485–500,

Heinselman, P.L., D.J. Stensrud, R.M. Hluchlan, P.L. Spencer, P.C. Burke, and K.L. Elmore, 2009: Radar reflectivity-based estimates of mixed layer depth., J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 26, 229-239.

Heinselman, P.L., P. C. Burke, and co-authors, 2024: Warn-on-Forecast System: From vision to reality. Wea. Forecasting, 39, 75–95,

Kuster, C.M., P.C. Burke, and A.A. Taylor, 2012: An 11-year radar-based study of tornadic thunderstorms over central Oklahoma. EJSSM, 7, No. 8.

Lindley, T. T., A. Zwink, R. Barnes, G. Murdoch, B. Ancell, P. Burke, and P. Skinner, 2023: Preliminary use of convection-allowing models in fire weather. J. Oper. Meteor., 11, 72–81, nwajom.2023.1106.

Novak, D.R., C. Bailey, K. Brill, P. Burke, W. Hogsett, M. Rausch, and M. Schichtel, 2014: Precipitation and temperature forecast performance at the Weather Prediction Center. Wea. Forecasting, 29, 489-504.

Skinner, P. S., K. A. Wilson, B. C. Matilla, B. Roberts, N. Yussouf, P. Burke, P. L. Heinselman, B. T. Gallo, T. A. Jones, K. H. Knopfmeier, M. L. Flora, J. Martin, J. E. Guerra, T. T. Lindley, C. Gravelle, and S. W. Bieda III, 2023: Interpreting Warn-on-Forecast System Guidance, Part I: Review of Probabilistic Guidance Concepts, Product Design, and Best Practices. J. Operational Meteor., 11, 110–131.

Stumpf, G.J., E.D. Mitchell, K.L. Elmore, V.T. Wood, P.C. Burke, and K.T. Angle, 1998: The new NSSL Vortex Detection and Diagnosis Algorithm-plans, status, issues. Preprints, 19th Conf. on Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis, MN, 725-728.

Wilson, K. A., P. C. Burke, B. T. Gallo, P. S. Skinner, T. T. Lindley, C. Gravelle, S. W. Bieda III, J. G. Madden, J. W. Monroe, J. E. Guerra, and D. A. Morris, 2024: Collaborative Exploration of Storm-Scale Probabilistic Guidance for NWS Forecast Operations. Wea. Forecasting, 39, 387–402.