{"id":5310,"date":"2020-05-14T14:21:11","date_gmt":"2020-05-14T19:21:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/nsslnews\/?p=5310"},"modified":"2020-05-15T11:34:03","modified_gmt":"2020-05-15T16:34:03","slug":"research-continues-to-improve-forecasting-tools","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/nsslnews\/2020\/05\/research-continues-to-improve-forecasting-tools\/","title":{"rendered":"Research continues to improve forecasting tools"},"content":{"rendered":"

Weather forecasters use a suite of sophisticated computer models to help them predict the weather every day. To make better forecasts, you need better models. That\u2019s where researchers play an important role.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Every spring for more than 20 years, researchers and forecasters have come together in the NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed to evaluate and improve weather models designed to predict severe storms, with the goal of providing new tools for forecasters. The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed<\/a> is a facility housed in the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. The physical space allows researchers, forecasters, emergency managers, broadcasters, and behavioral scientists to gather and study future forecasting tools and techniques.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This year the research continues with one major difference. Instead of gathering side-by-side, participants in the <\/span>Spring Forecasting Experiment<\/span><\/a> will be working from home in a virtual experiment from April 27 to May 29.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe want to know how forecasters can use different tools and how we can convey information to the public, all while documenting the performance of different forecasting models,\u201d said Adam Clark, NSSL research scientist. <\/span><\/p>\n

Clark is one of the experiment\u2019s co-principal investigators, along with Israel Jirak, Science and Operations Officer with the NOAA National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center.\u00a0<\/span>In addition to NSSL and SPC, this year\u2019s virtual spring forecasting experiment includes NOAA <\/span>participants from the Global Systems Laboratory, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Environmental Modeling Center, Weather Prediction Center and Aviation Weather Center, as well as a variety of governmental and academic partners including the University of Oklahoma, Iowa State University and the National Centers for Atmospheric Research, and international partners from as far as Australia, Brazil, and the UK Met Office.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\"Screenshot<\/a>
The Spring Forecasting Experiment went virtual this year as participants gathered from around the world to test and review experimental forecasting tools and modeling systems, as shown here. (Photo provided)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In addition to the analysis of regional high-resolution forecast models during the experiment, some participants will explore the Warn-on-Forecast system<\/span><\/a>. The WoFS is a short-term forecast model that could be used to fill the gap in the watch-to-warning time scale. A watch is issued several hours in advance of potential storms, alerting the public of possible hazardous weather. A warning may be issued immediately before a storm and alerts the public they need to seek shelter immediately.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cUntil a warning is issued, there is not much middle ground between a watch and warning,\u201d said Clark. \u201cThere are several scientific and behavioral science questions as part of the experiment because the systems we\u2019re testing are different, with different ways to visualize threats.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Your not so typical day<\/b><\/h3>\n

Experiment participants \u2014 located throughout the world \u2014 begin each day with evaluations of the output of a variety of forecast models, followed by virtual small group discussions and analysis.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"A<\/a>
Burkely Gallo facilitating and participating in the Spring Forecasting Experiment from her home office.\u00a0 The virtual experiment is from April 27 to May 29.<\/span> (Photo provided)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

\u201cWe might ask them, \u2018did anything stand out to them, what was most interesting\u2019 \u2014 we get a lot of value from those organic discussions and perspectives,\u201d said Burkely Gallo, a lead facilitator for the experiment at the University of Oklahoma Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, whose work supports the Storm Prediction Center.\u00a0 \u201cWe didn\u2019t want to lose the ability to have those conversations.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

A subset of participants then delves into issuing experimental severe weather outlooks and forecasts using Warn-on-Forecast output.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ll get a lot of data out of this experiment because we were able to preserve what helps us answer our research questions,\u201d said Gallo.<\/span><\/p>\n

Even virtually, the experiment will continue to provide different perspectives from the severe weather enterprise blended together, resulting in better forecasts to save lives and property.<\/span><\/p>\n

models Being used and tested<\/h2>\n