A paper from NOAA’s National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) summarizing the Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) was selected as a recipient of the 2025 Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR) Outstanding Scientific Paper Award.
Warn-on-Forecast System: From Vision to Reality documents the evolution of the Warn-on-Forecast System, a high-resolution, model-based prediction system designed to provide probabilistic guidance on hazardous weather threats including tornadoes, severe thunderstorms, and flash flooding with lead times of up to an hour or more.
The paper is a clear, peer-reviewed summation of more than a decade of research, development, and collaboration that has brought WoFS to its current status preparing for transition to operations. Published in Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, the paper reflects the combined efforts of scientists from NSSL, the Cooperative Institute for Severe and High-Impact Weather Research and Operations (CIWRO), and collaborators at the NOAA Global Systems Laboratory (GSL).
“This award is recognition of more than just a great paper, but really years of collaborative work from NSSL, CIWRO and GSL on the Warn-on-Forecast System,” said DaNa Carlis, NSSL Director. “WoFS is an incredible tool with the potential to help forecasters give the public life-saving lead time for severe weather that is measured in hours instead of minutes. These types of high-impact research projects take several years to fully mature through the R2O process and it’s extremely satisfying to see great science and engineering rewarded publicly.”
The paper, led by NSSL Asst. Director for Science Pam Heinselman and including more than 30 authors across several NOAA labs and cooperative institutes, showcases the real-time experimental deployment of WoFS in recent years and outlines a vision for the operational future of the system.
“I was in the room in 2003 when the idea was presented to NSSL staff by then-director Jeff Kimpel,” said NSSL Researcher Lou Wicker. “This vision of providing a longer warning for tornadoes and severe weather – Jeff characterized it as the weather equivalent of the Apollo space program.
“That really resonated with us,” Wicker remembers. “That was such an inspiring comparison when Kimpel talked about this being our moon shot project for weather forecasting. To see where we are now preparing for operations after years of bringing that vision to life is truly incredible.”
The awardees and authors will be honored at the 2025 OAR Outstanding Scientific Paper All-Hands & Award Ceremony on Thursday, June 26.
