{"id":550,"date":"2023-01-06T15:46:41","date_gmt":"2023-01-06T21:46:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/kphi\/?p=550"},"modified":"2023-01-06T22:56:17","modified_gmt":"2023-01-07T04:56:17","slug":"decisions-over-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/kphi\/2023\/01\/decisions-over-time\/","title":{"rendered":"Decisions Over Time"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"What weather information do broadcast meteorologists seek in the days and hours leading up to a severe weather event? \u00a0What decisions are being made with this information? \u00a0Could experimental products help fill any informational gaps in this timeframe?<\/span><\/p>\n

These were all questions researchers sought to answer during the Fall 2022 “End User Decisions Over Time” virtual experiment.<\/p>\n

Over the course of four 2-day experiments, 10 broadcast meteorologists participated in virtual exercises and discussions with researchers. \u00a0Participants completed a ranking exercise using Google Jamboards, in which they selected various pieces of weather information listed on cards as “Must Have”, “Could Have”, “Should Have” or “Won’t Have”. \u00a0Researchers provided example cards for participants, but they also created their own cards.<\/p>\n

“Must Haves” in the 4-24 hour and 0-4 hour ranges before severe weather included convection-allowing models (CAMs), SPC Mesoscale Discussions (both for probability of watch and severe weather timing), NWSchat, and severe weather timing information from local National Weather Service offices:<\/p>\n

\u201cThings ramp up and the Mesoscale Discussion comes out, watches come out – use the Mesoscale Discussion\u00a0as a trigger to reissue post on social media and blog, do brief cut ins\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

\u201cSPC Mesoscale Discussions drive the ship, as well as watches and local warnings.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

\u00a0\u201cMesoscale Discussion prior to watch time, we start to alert folks.\u00a0 This is when things start to get real crazy at the station.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

\u201cUse CAMs to show [viewers] where storms will be, love the HRRR and the ability to forecast storm mode, where storms fire, when they arrive, etc.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

\u201cNWSchat is probably the biggest advancement in warning tech ever besides radar because of exchange of information – saves lives in [large US city] \u201c<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

After being introduced to experimental products being developed at CIWRO and NSSL, participants were asked to complete the ranking exercise again, this time including the experimental information. \u00a0“Must Haves” included SPC Moving Watch Guidance, probability of warnings from the Warn on Forecast guidance system, and probability of hazard over the next 60 minutes:<\/p>\n

\u201dGiving folks the all clear is critical to maintaining trust and avoiding warning fatigue and to maintain citizen participation in their own safety\u2026when we leave watches up it contributes to fatigue. It also dilutes authority and trust to act when left up too long\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

\u201cThe more nailed we are with the threat time, the more people will pay attention.\u00a0 I don\u2019t know if I’d share all the timing guidance, but it would help me more.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

\u201cWould not show the likelihood of a tornado warning, I use it internally but no need to send it to the viewer.\u00a0 Not useful for them.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

“This is my favorite of the bunch, I think more forecasts should be probabilistic vs deterministic to avoid being \u201cwrong\u201d when you are barely off.”<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

More research results from this project will be shared during the presentation “End User Decisions Over Time:\u00a0<\/span>Assessing Weather Information Needs and Decision Making for Severe Weather Events with Broadcast Meteorologists”\u00a0<\/span>at the 103rd AMS Annual Meeting in Denver, CO on January 9th, 2023.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

What weather information do broadcast meteorologists seek in the days and hours leading up to a severe weather event? \u00a0What decisions are being made with this information? \u00a0Could experimental products… <\/p>\n

Read more \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":130,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/kphi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/kphi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/kphi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/kphi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/130"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/kphi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=550"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/kphi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":554,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/kphi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/550\/revisions\/554"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/kphi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=550"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/kphi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=550"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/kphi\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=550"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}