{"id":8160,"date":"2014-05-08T14:40:32","date_gmt":"2014-05-08T19:40:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hwt.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/internal\/blog\/?p=8160"},"modified":"2016-10-03T17:52:55","modified_gmt":"2016-10-03T22:52:55","slug":"dsm-area-analysis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2014\/05\/08\/dsm-area-analysis\/","title":{"rendered":"DSM area analysis"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Models agree on low pressure lifting NE or NNE form eastern NE into MN through the afternoon.\u00a0 As of 19Z, all of IA was in the warm sector, with a cold front expected to cross form the west during the afternoon\/early evening.\u00a0 the 12 Z NAM puts the front near DSM at 0Z; the 12Z GFS still has it just to the west.<\/p>\n<p>Earlier convection is exiting stage right, and some clearing is taking place in western IA.\u00a0 We&#8217;re getting rapid scan GOES data today, so we&#8217;ll be monitoring the boundary structures that are evident on the imagery.\u00a0 Below is the CI product superimposed over the visible image&#8230;we&#8217;re seeing 67% probability of development of 35 dbz returns in the next hour or so along these boundaries.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2014\/05\/SatDrawing.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-8164\" alt=\"SatDrawing\" src=\"http:\/\/hwt.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/internal\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/SatDrawing-1024x584.jpg\" width=\"584\" height=\"333\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>As this activity develops and moves eastward, Nearcast forecast theta-e difference by 22Z would indicate pockets of instability (in an area of closer to neutral stability) moving in over the next few hours from the west.\u00a0 Will be interesting to see how this translates into storm coverage, or even storm mode, as the front moves in.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2014\/05\/eekDrawing.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-8169\" alt=\"eekDrawing\" src=\"http:\/\/hwt.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/internal\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/eekDrawing-1024x584.jpg\" width=\"584\" height=\"333\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>And in the time it&#8217;s taken me to work on the above&#8230;we&#8217;re seeing gradually developing convection marching to the NE\/IA border in an area marked by the CI earlier.\u00a0 Only low to moderate hits on ProbSevere (45% or less by 1930Z).<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2014\/05\/arghdrawing.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-8170\" alt=\"arghdrawing\" src=\"http:\/\/hwt.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/internal\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/arghdrawing-1024x584.jpg\" width=\"584\" height=\"333\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Do have LAPS data today, but a late realignment of the domain has the model playing catch-up.\u00a0 Will comment later.<\/p>\n<p>Wx briefing indicated increasing chances of UH tracks in our area, especially in our northeastern counties&#8230;watching for supercells with tornadoes and hail&#8230;and some severe wind<\/p>\n<p>db<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Models agree on low pressure lifting NE or NNE form eastern NE into MN through the afternoon.\u00a0 As of 19Z, all of IA was in the warm sector, with a&#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2014\/05\/08\/dsm-area-analysis\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read more \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":215,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-8160","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8160","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/215"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8160"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8160\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13637,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8160\/revisions\/13637"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8160"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8160"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8160"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}