{"id":7905,"date":"2014-05-05T15:04:02","date_gmt":"2014-05-05T20:04:02","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/hwt.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/internal\/blog\/?p=7905"},"modified":"2016-10-03T17:52:47","modified_gmt":"2016-10-03T22:52:47","slug":"7905","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2014\/05\/05\/7905\/","title":{"rendered":"Watching Testbed Tools Cinco de Mayo"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Been watching an area of showers across central Virginia&#8230;located north and east of a cold front.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2014\/05\/CAVEDrawing.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/hwt.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/internal\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/CAVEDrawing-300x211.jpg\" alt=\"CAVEDrawing\" width=\"300\" height=\"211\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Typically would not expect to see vigorous convective development in the relatively stable air here.\u00a0 The NOAA\/CIMSS ProbSevere Model agrees&#8230;.it&#8217;s been outlining some cells, but typically have not seen anything higher than a 10% severe probability.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2014\/05\/CAVEDrawing3.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-7916\" src=\"http:\/\/hwt.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/internal\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/CAVEDrawing3-300x211.jpg\" alt=\"CAVEDrawing3\" width=\"300\" height=\"211\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Of some interest is the GOES-R CI model, which for a time pegged a 60% chance for some more cell development to the south and west of the current area of precipitation in southwest VA.\u00a0 Surface analysis shows this area to be much closer to a surface boundary separating 80s from 60s.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2014\/05\/CAVEDrawing2.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-medium wp-image-7917\" src=\"http:\/\/hwt.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/internal\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/CAVEDrawing2-300x211.jpg\" alt=\"CAVEDrawing2\" width=\"300\" height=\"211\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Some further monitoring of the CI has seen the value dip back into the 40% range within about 15 minutes time.\u00a0 Will be interesting to see if this parameter continues to move some over the next hour or so&#8230;or if any development actually occurs.<\/p>\n<p>UPDATE<\/p>\n<p>Convection developed within the hour&#8230;with high severe probs!<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><img alt=\"\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Also to be noted after the fact: the forecast theta-e difference between 500 and 780 mb leading into the convection showed a nice and persistent&#8230;although not overwhelming in magnitude (-6 at worst)&#8230;piece of instability rolling into SW VA.<\/p>\n<p>So far, the forecast tools have done a good job in pointing to an area&#8230;even if it was marginally outlooked this morning&#8230;of an area of vigorous convection that did develop.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Been watching an area of showers across central Virginia&#8230;located north and east of a cold front. &nbsp; Typically would not expect to see vigorous convective development in the relatively stable&#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2014\/05\/05\/7905\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read more \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":215,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7905","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-general"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7905","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/215"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7905"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7905\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13594,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7905\/revisions\/13594"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7905"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7905"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7905"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}