{"id":3062,"date":"2011-11-07T10:41:09","date_gmt":"2011-11-07T15:41:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hwt.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/internal\/blog\/?p=3062"},"modified":"2017-06-23T14:59:19","modified_gmt":"2017-06-23T19:59:19","slug":"limitations-of-warngen-polygons-part-iii-but-my-threat-area-isnt-a-20-km-square","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2011\/11\/07\/limitations-of-warngen-polygons-part-iii-but-my-threat-area-isnt-a-20-km-square\/","title":{"rendered":"Limitations of WarnGen polygons Part III:  But my threat area isn&#8217;t a 20 km square"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>WarnGen limits the user to only one default choice for the initial or  projected threat areas.\u00a0 The same parameters (10km, 15km) are always  used.\u00a0 Of course, the meteorologist can actually change these areas by manually editing the default polygon points.\u00a0 The back end of the warning can be edited to conform to the shape of the current threat area.\u00a0 The front end of the warning can also be edited to conform to the projected future shape of the warning area.\u00a0 But recall that once you start to edit the points in the polygon, you have now decoupled the motion vector and duration from the warning.\u00a0 In fact, the point position and motion vector happen to be transmitted in the warning text.\u00a0 When the forward portions of the warning are changed without adjusting the motion vector and\/or duration of the warning, it becomes possible for a sophisticated user to project the current position based on the motion vector and discover that the forecast future position may not even lie within the warning polygon swath.\u00a0 Confusion could reign!<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/warntext1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/warntext1.png\" alt=\"warntext\" width=\"829\" height=\"755\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-14656\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/warntext1.png 829w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/warntext1-800x729.png 800w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/warntext1-768x699.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>What about the placement of the point or line?\u00a0 Where should these go?\u00a0 Let&#8217;s just look at the point placement, the &#8220;Drag Me To Storm&#8221; position.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/dragmetostorm.gif\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/dragmetostorm.gif\" alt=\"dragmetostorm\" width=\"439\" height=\"360\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-14655\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>This point is used to represent the &#8220;storm&#8221;.\u00a0 But does this get placed at the centroid of the storm (option 1)?\u00a0 Or is it placed on the leading edge of the storm along the centroid motion vector (option 2)?\u00a0 Or the most forward portion of the echo (option 3)?\u00a0 Or elsewhere?\u00a0 This point is used to project the future location of the threat at the end of the warning, and also to compute the &#8220;pathcast&#8221; information.\u00a0 But if the point doesn&#8217;t actually represent the full spatial extent of the threat, wouldn&#8217;t the resulting polygons and pathcasts be incorrect?\u00a0 For example, if using the centroid of the storm, the severe weather might commence before reaching the centroid of the storm, and the polygons and pathcasts would be lag in time.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_11.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_11.png\" alt=\"drag_me_11\" width=\"1014\" height=\"441\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-14653\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_11.png 1014w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_11-800x348.png 800w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_11-768x334.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>So let&#8217;s say for example we track using the storm centroid.\u00a0 Without editing the default polygon, you can see that a portion of the storm threat might be missed using the default box sizes.\u00a0 One could manually edit the polygon, but this would be done entirely qualitatively.\u00a0 How could this be done quantitatively?<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_31.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_31.png\" alt=\"drag_me_31\" width=\"883\" height=\"377\" class=\"alignnone size-large wp-image-14654\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_31.png 883w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_31-800x342.png 800w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_31-768x328.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In either case, the storm hazard isn&#8217;t a point, but it is a <em>two-dimensional area<\/em>.\u00a0 In a way, WarnGen provides a 2D threat area, but it is a perfect square 20 km on each side.\u00a0 No storm actually has those dimensions.\u00a0 It therefore makes more sense that we should be defining 2D threat areas, and projecting 2D threat areas at future positions, like so (assuming the orange contour represents the spatial extent of the severe weather in this storm):<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_4.png\" alt=\"drag_me_4\" width=\"1041\" height=\"499\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-14652\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_4.png 1041w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_4-800x383.png 800w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/11\/drag_me_4-768x368.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>In addition, the future threat area defaults to a set expansion rate (exactly 150% its original size), and there is no direct way for the forecaster to quantify how much the threat area will expand, or how the projected area should be modulated to account for motion uncertainty or storm evolution.<\/p>\n<p>We&#8217;ll show you one method in which we can address these shortcomings of WarnGen next, a proposed method for creating the short-fused convective hazard grids that does a better job at quantifying and directly coupling current and projected threat areas, motion, and motion uncertainty.\u00a0 In addition, this new warning generation methodology can provide intermediate threat area locations within the entire swath of the warning, plus one other major benefit:\u00a0 Threats-In-Motion (TIM), to be described very soon in this blog.<\/p>\n<p>This is the first step in a proposed new hazard information delivery methodology that we feel will naturally dovetail toward the future &#8220;Warn-On-Forecast&#8221; paradigm of using numerical ensemble guidance to predict storm evolution beyond simple detection and extrapolation of threats.<\/p>\n<p><em>Greg Stumpf, CIMMS and NWS\/MDL<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>WarnGen limits the user to only one default choice for the initial or projected threat areas.\u00a0 The same parameters (10km, 15km) are always used.\u00a0 Of course, the meteorologist can actually&#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2011\/11\/07\/limitations-of-warngen-polygons-part-iii-but-my-threat-area-isnt-a-20-km-square\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read more \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":333,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3062","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-experimental-warning-thoughts"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3062","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/333"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3062"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3062\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14658,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3062\/revisions\/14658"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3062"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3062"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3062"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}