{"id":2551,"date":"2011-05-27T12:44:17","date_gmt":"2011-05-27T17:44:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hwt.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/internal\/blog\/?p=2551"},"modified":"2016-10-04T15:04:48","modified_gmt":"2016-10-04T20:04:48","slug":"week-3-summary-may-23-27","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2011\/05\/27\/week-3-summary-may-23-27\/","title":{"rendered":"Week 3 summary (May 23-27)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Week #3 had a very interesting local event, with the following guest NWS forecasters:\u00a0 <strong>Jason       Jordan<\/strong> (WFO Lubbock, TX), <strong>Daniel Leins<\/strong> (WFO Phoenix,     AZ), <strong>Bobby Prentice<\/strong> (WDTB, Norman, OK), <strong>Pablo Santos<\/strong> (WFO Miami, FL), and <strong>Kevin E. Smith<\/strong> (WFO Paducah, KY).\u00a0 Other visiting participants this week will include <strong>Chris Jewett<\/strong> (UAH), <strong>Scott Rudlosky<\/strong> (UMD), <strong>Lee Cronce<\/strong> (UW-CIMSS),     and <strong>Rudolf (Rudi) Kaltenb\u00f6ck<\/strong> (Austro Control, Vienna,     Austria)<\/p>\n<p><strong>Overview of week 3<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Monday was primarily a training day, and was spent familiarizing the forecasters with the products.\u00a0 They examined both the playback case we have used consistently each week of the experiment, as well as some real-time storms that developed in western OK.<\/p>\n<p>Tuesday was possibly one of the more exciting days in the 5-year history of the EWP.\u00a0 The morning shift focused on examining the OUN WRF and other data sets, producing the discussion &#8220;<a title=\"Permanent Link to Tornado Outbreak Likely over KS\/OK\/n TX\" rel=\"bookmark\" href=\"..\/2011\/05\/24\/tornado-outbreak-likely-over-ksokn-tx\/\">Tornado Outbreak Likely over KS\/OK\/n TX<\/a>.&#8221;\u00a0 We met with the EFP for a combined discussion at 1 pm, and quickly regrouped in the Development Lab for a more detailed strategy session, and were into operations mode by 2pm.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_2552\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2552\" style=\"width: 450px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/06\/IMG-20110524-00345.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-2552\" title=\"Bobby's Briefing\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/06\/IMG-20110524-00345-1024x763.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"335\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-2552\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Bobby Prentice briefs the joint EWP\/EFP (as well as a few media members) prior to the May 24th outbreak event.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>As we moved into the mid-afternoon, supercells developed by 3:30pm, and by 4pm there were tornadoes being observed by spotters and shown in real-time on the Situational Awareness Display.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_2553\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2553\" style=\"width: 450px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/06\/IMG-20110524-00350.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-2553\" title=\"May24 Operations\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/06\/IMG-20110524-00350-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"337\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-2553\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">A tornado is observed in real-time on the HWT Situational Awareness Display.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>With several supercells approaching central Oklahoma, one group took responsibility for the northern cluster of storms, while the other group observed the southern storms.\u00a0 Forecasters were able to evaluate all the experimental products (GOES-R, 3DVAR, OUN WRF), although the pGLM feed stopped when one of the OK Lightning Mapping Array sites was damaged by a tornado.\u00a0 At 5:45pm, the National Weather Center security desk called for everyone to take shelter on the lower level of the NWC.\u00a0 A few forecasters stayed and observed the storm approaching on radar, but operations were suspended.<\/p>\n<p>As Jason Jordan wrote:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The majority of the forecasters stayed in the HWT to watch the storms  as they approached the National Weather Center.  Live data from the PAR  along with area TDWRs and the KTLX radar showed an impressive evolution  of two confirmed tornadic debris balls as the storms moved towards us.<\/p>\n<p>The 3DVar products all handled the track and evolution of the storms  very well and the combined radar products also have an excellent track  of the tornadoes as well.  Continuity was maintained as the storms moved  into the cone of silence of the KTLX radar.<\/p>\n<p>As the storms started to move into the metro OKC area, attention to  the details\/operations  was lost as we watched live TV feeds and could  see the hail falling outside the WFO window.  The excitement rapidly  turned to sorrow however as the live TV feeds showed homes and  structures being ripped apart.<\/p>\n<p>One last item that made it very clear how close we were to being  impacted by the tornadoes directly; leaf and light matter debris was  falling from the sky when several EWP members went up to the roof of the  NWC to see the dissipation of the tornado moving south of Norman.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Because Central Oklahoma was affected by several violent tornadoes, we suspended operations on Wednesday, and all EWP participants assisted the Norman NWSFO in surveying the damage.\u00a0 With the help of the EWP teams and others from the Norman community, 8-10 groups of 2-3 people each were able to survey a majority of the damage in one day.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_2554\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-2554\" style=\"width: 450px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/06\/IMG-20110525-00352.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-large wp-image-2554\" title=\"Damage path\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2011\/06\/IMG-20110525-00352-1024x768.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"450\" height=\"337\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-2554\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Old Glory flies near Blanchard OK, in the path of an EF4 tornado&#39;s destruction.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Thursday&#8217;s operations focused on convection in Pennsylvania and Maryland, which allowed additional use of the pGLM products from the DC LMA.\u00a0 The CI and Nearcast products were examined during the early shift, and the 3DVAR and other remaining satellite products were used during warning operations.<\/p>\n<p>Our usual Friday round-table discussion of the week&#8217;s activities provided a lot of additional feedback.\u00a0 Comments:<\/p>\n<p><strong>UH CI:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>performance should improve with next-gen satellites.\u00a0  Probabilities would be a good addition.<\/li>\n<li>the CI algorithm may not work work outside the plains region (although it did work in Florida on Thursday)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Other Satellite products<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>the precipitable water was a nice utility.\u00a0 Theta-E max on  Tuesday showed that the storm was moving into an even more unstable  environment.\u00a0 Gave some additional lead time.\u00a0 Chris S. commented that this  was not the way the creators originally intended to use it, but is a  nice fall-out from the research.<\/li>\n<li>another forecaster commented that these products could be useful for off-shore significant weather.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>pGLM:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Tuesday, looking start of El Reno storm, cell mergers, rapid  increase in flash rate w\/ big changes in updraft intensity.\u00a0 Downstream  increase in anvil activity seemed predictive of where the supercell was  moving \/ regenerating.\u00a0\u00a0 We also saw that in the Sterling data on Thursday  &#8211; rapid increase, led to a closer look and noticed that new cell  generation was occurring.<\/li>\n<li>10-15 minute lead time over CG network.\u00a0\u00a0 Lots of potential  uses, but need more research.<\/li>\n<li>General consensus is the a ration of in-cloud to CG-lightning would be interesting.<\/li>\n<li>The presence of persistent lightning over time may be related to flash flooding<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>OUN WRF:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>it did really well on Tuesday.\u00a0 Looked at it hour-after-hour.\u00a0  Updraft Helicity, vorticity.\u00a0 Probably an accident (jokingly), but  was surprised how well it did.\u00a0 Good groundwork for Warn-on-Forecast.\u00a0 Very  promising.<\/li>\n<li>echo previous comment.\u00a0 Could look at HRRR model for initial conditions.\u00a0 May be a good  boundary condition for OUN WRF in situations where you have  less-than-stellar data.<\/li>\n<li>Florida forecasters were impressed with HRRR in FL so much that they have started to use  it as initial boundary condition.\u00a0 Have you done any verification versus  MR\/MS products?<\/li>\n<li>OUN would like to use the SPC methods for scoring output for this.<\/li>\n<li>the displays are unviewable in some cases.\u00a0 Too  cluttered.<\/li>\n<li>Flash Flood &#8211; would be nice to have accumulated precip.<\/li>\n<li>could do Rotation Tracks, trend analysis.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Side discussion on mesoscale and storm-scale ensembles<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>need a way to establish reliability of ensembles<\/li>\n<li>challenge to consider options &#8211; need a statistical complement  to the ensemble &#8211; statistical distribution of storm behavior.<\/li>\n<li>Mark DeMaria paper on blending statistical and dynamic model ensembles  to determine improve reliability<\/li>\n<li>also reference independent study in the Miami Herald on Probability of Precipitation forecast.\u00a0 Newspaper used a reliability diagram to show NWS PoP skill.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>3DVAR <\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>liked updraft intensity a lot.\u00a0 Could be used in the microburst environment to detect which cells may be severe.<\/li>\n<li>Did an outstanding job on the Tuesday event<\/li>\n<li>No doubt that this would be useful.\u00a0 Need to get it into OSIP right away.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>AWIPS thoughts<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>need some default procedures in AWIPS.\u00a0 Half the battle was that  it was very inefficient to view them.\u00a0\u00a0 Lots of time wasted.<\/li>\n<li>yes!\u00a0 Had to recreate his procedures.\u00a0\u00a0 Much of his data was  missing do to not having a full feed in AWIPS (note: this will be fixed in AWIPS2 next year).<\/li>\n<li>most of these are just relational.\u00a0 Want to evaluate as many  procdures as possible in as little time as possible.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 Synergistic  across multiple projects.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Other forecaster thoughts:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Powerpoint training is not the best.\u00a0 Would prefer &#8220;Articulates&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>include data from previous real-time case to demonstrate.\u00a0 Perhaps a Virtual Machine for AWIPS<\/li>\n<li>forecasters should be required to do pre-work before arriving at the HWT.\u00a0 This would allow Monday to be used for operations instead of training.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><em>\u2013 Travis Smith, weekly coordinator<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Week #3 had a very interesting local event, with the following guest NWS forecasters:\u00a0 Jason Jordan (WFO Lubbock, TX), Daniel Leins (WFO Phoenix, AZ), Bobby Prentice (WDTB, Norman, OK), Pablo&#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2011\/05\/27\/week-3-summary-may-23-27\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read more \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":88,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-weekly-summaries"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2551","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/88"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2551"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2551\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14533,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2551\/revisions\/14533"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2551"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2551"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2551"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}