{"id":18851,"date":"2021-05-21T08:28:56","date_gmt":"2021-05-21T13:28:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/?p=18851"},"modified":"2021-05-21T08:28:56","modified_gmt":"2021-05-21T13:28:56","slug":"a-little-confidence-goes-a-long-way-ntda-nmda-warning-decision-nudger","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2021\/05\/21\/a-little-confidence-goes-a-long-way-ntda-nmda-warning-decision-nudger\/","title":{"rendered":"A Little Confidence Goes a Long Way &#8211; NTDA\/NMDA Warning Decision Nudger"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>This was a great example where both the NTDA and NMDA algorithms acted as a confidence nudger for a warning decision &#8211; ultimately resulting in positive warning lead time ahead of a tornado. Interrogating a local surge in a line of severe thunderstorms southeast of TLX at 0250Z, this area was a prime focus for potential tornadogenesis given line-normal 0-3km Bulk Shear of ~40kts according to RAP13KM data (using the Three Ingredients Method). Scanning aloft quickly, a tightening mesocyclone was in progress which led to a tornado warning decision. By this time, I did notice quickly increasing trends in NTDA probabilities (83.59% at 0250Z, 86.36% at 0252Z) which by this time, I was already beginning to draw the TOR in Warngen. Seeing this display update while drawing the warning gave enough confidence to not second doubt anything, and to \u201cpull the trigger\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The warning came across at 0253Z, providing a 8 minute lead time to the first tornado (past survey analysis performed looking at the Data Assessment Toolkit shows a small EF-1 tornado touched down at 0301Z).<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18852\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18852\" style=\"width: 1018px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18852\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1018\" height=\"550\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_1.png 1018w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_1-900x486.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_1-768x415.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_1-600x324.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18852\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">0250Z (0950PM 10\/20\/19) KTLX 0.5\u00baSRM plotting NTDA and NMDA.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18853\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18853\" style=\"width: 1019px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18853\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1019\" height=\"546\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_2.png 1019w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_2-900x482.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_2-768x412.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_2-600x321.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18853\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">0253Z (0953PM 10\/20\/19) 10\/21\/19 KTLX 0.5\u00baSRM plotting NTDA and NMDA.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18854\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18854\" style=\"width: 1018px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18854\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1018\" height=\"545\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_3.png 1018w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_3-900x482.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_3-768x411.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_3-600x321.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18854\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">0255Z (0955PM 10\/20\/19) KTLX 0.5\u00baSRM plotting NTDA and NMDA.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18855\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18855\" style=\"width: 1308px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_4.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18855\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1308\" height=\"678\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_4.png 1308w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_4-900x467.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_4-768x398.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/a_little_confidence_20210520_dusty_4-600x311.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18855\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tornado tracks and wind damage reports from the Damage Assessment Toolkit (DAT) showing two small tornadoes, and scattered wind damage from the local line surge\/area of rotation.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Did the NTDA\/NMDA algorithms make my decision? No, and honestly I am not sure when or where it would. What this does show is how these tools provided the confidence needed to make the decision, which in a stressful situation is vital. Confidence is hard to come by when making warning decisions, as there are so many tools (sometimes too many). I would safely say the NTDA\/NMDA algorithms provided extra confidence to my warning decision which ultimately led to a positive lead time from my tornado warning. Great tool!<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Dusty Davis<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This was a great example where both the NTDA and NMDA algorithms acted as a confidence nudger for a warning decision &#8211; ultimately resulting in positive warning lead time ahead&#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2021\/05\/21\/a-little-confidence-goes-a-long-way-ntda-nmda-warning-decision-nudger\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read more \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":139,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[55,79],"class_list":["post-18851","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-nmda","tag-ntda"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18851","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/139"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18851"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18851\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18856,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18851\/revisions\/18856"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18851"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18851"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18851"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}