{"id":18819,"date":"2021-05-20T11:31:08","date_gmt":"2021-05-20T16:31:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/?p=18819"},"modified":"2021-05-20T11:31:08","modified_gmt":"2021-05-20T16:31:08","slug":"much-needed-warning-decision-nudger-and-confirmation-from-ntda-nmda","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2021\/05\/20\/much-needed-warning-decision-nudger-and-confirmation-from-ntda-nmda\/","title":{"rendered":"Much Needed Warning Decision Nudger and Confirmation from NTDA\/NMDA"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Interesting confirmation from the NTDA\/NMDA Algorithms in the DMX Archived Review. An earlier Tornado Warning was in effect for a main ESE tracking supercell, with plenty of storm reports previously. Out ahead of this storm, a weak cell was approaching from the SW and was beginning to merge and cut off the necessary inflow to the already ongoing tornado in south-central Jasper County.<\/p>\n<p>This brought forth an interesting situation. NMDA\/NTDA algorithms were lining up but at low probabilities at 2034Z (NTDA 23.56%) which was enough to grab my attention. Since this entire event was tricky due to such an elevated storm environment (analyzing SRM\/BV at atleast 3.1\u00ba and above), seeing the algorithms line up was enough confidence given to propose a new TOR for the southern part of the current polygon.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18820\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18820\" style=\"width: 1017px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18820\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1017\" height=\"543\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_1.png 1017w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_1-900x481.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_1-768x410.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_1-600x320.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18820\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">2034Z 7\/19\/18 KDMX. Top Left: 0.5\u00ba SRM (Storm motion 277\u00ba at 26kt). Top Right: 3.1\u00ba SRM. Bottom Left: SRM 4.0\u00ba. Bottom Right: SRM 5.1\u00ba.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>From here, NMDA began to show increasing trends which supported a visual interpretation of increasing cyclonic rotation in the mid levels.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18821\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18821\" style=\"width: 1016px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_2.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18821\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_2.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1016\" height=\"543\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_2.png 1016w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_2-900x481.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_2-768x410.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_2-600x321.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18821\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">2041Z 7\/19\/18 KDMX. Top Left: 0.5\u00ba SRM (Storm motion 277\u00ba at 26kt). Top Right: 3.1\u00ba SRM. Bottom Left: SRM 4.0\u00ba. Bottom Right: SRM 5.1\u00ba.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Further increases in NTDA\/NMDA along with increasing Vrot now in the lowest tilt (indicative of either a strengthening tornado or stretching\/tightening of rotational velocity to the lowest levels) increased forecaster confidence in the decision of a warning.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_18822\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-18822\" style=\"width: 1019px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_3.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-18822\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_3.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1019\" height=\"550\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_3.png 1019w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_3-900x486.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_3-768x415.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2021\/05\/much_needed_warning_decision_nudger_20210519_dusty_3-600x324.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-18822\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">2045Z 7\/19\/18 KDMX. Top Left: 0.5\u00ba SRM (Storm motion 277\u00ba at 26kt). Top Right: 3.1\u00ba SRM. Bottom Left: SRM 4.0\u00ba. Bottom Right: SRM 5.1\u00ba.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>This was a great illustration of both an early heads up, and a warning confirmation from both algorithms. Only mistake was not using the Bunkers Right Motion wind barbs to illustrate a tall enough updraft\u2019s potential at a far right deviant motion (with a follow up warning clocked much more southeast to account for this motion)<\/p>\n<p>&#8211; Dusty Davis<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Interesting confirmation from the NTDA\/NMDA Algorithms in the DMX Archived Review. An earlier Tornado Warning was in effect for a main ESE tracking supercell, with plenty of storm reports previously.&#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2021\/05\/20\/much-needed-warning-decision-nudger-and-confirmation-from-ntda-nmda\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read more \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":139,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[55,79],"class_list":["post-18819","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-nmda","tag-ntda"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18819","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/139"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18819"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18819\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":18823,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18819\/revisions\/18823"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18819"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18819"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18819"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}