{"id":17488,"date":"2019-05-21T18:37:08","date_gmt":"2019-05-21T23:37:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/?p=17488"},"modified":"2019-05-21T18:42:54","modified_gmt":"2019-05-21T23:42:54","slug":"prob-tor-prob","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2019\/05\/21\/prob-tor-prob\/","title":{"rendered":"Prob Tor Prob"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>At times, there is some unnatural jumpiness in the Prob Tor Product. See the time series of 0.5 base velocity and Prob Severe\/Tor below.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17489\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2310Z0521.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1874\" height=\"823\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2310Z0521.png 1874w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2310Z0521-900x395.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2310Z0521-768x337.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2310Z0521-1800x791.png 1800w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2310Z0521-600x264.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>The first image is 2310Z. The storm is not overly impressive, with 5 minute FED max of 3 (not shown). Accordingly, the Prob Hail\/Wind\/Tor is 4\/2\/11 % respectively. The base velocity shows some decent winds of 45+ knots at about 3500 ft. above ground.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17491\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2312Z0521.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1874\" height=\"823\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2312Z0521.png 1874w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2312Z0521-900x395.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2312Z0521-768x337.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2312Z0521-1800x791.png 1800w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2312Z0521-600x264.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>When moving to 2312Z however, the Prob Hail\/Wind\/Tor\u00a0 are 4\/12\/61 % respectively. That is a huge jump in Tor Prob, but the velocity does not indicate any substantive change in organization, and the 5 minute FED has not changed.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17498\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2316Z0521.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1874\" height=\"823\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2316Z0521.png 1874w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2316Z0521-900x395.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2316Z0521-768x337.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2316Z0521-1800x791.png 1800w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2316Z0521-600x264.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Going ahead to 2316Z, the base velocity looks even less impressive, but the Prob Hail\/Wind\/Tor\u00a0 are virtually unchanged at 3\/12\/61 % respectively.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-17501\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2318Z0521.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"1874\" height=\"823\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2318Z0521.png 1874w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2318Z0521-900x395.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2318Z0521-768x337.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2318Z0521-1800x791.png 1800w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/ProbTorProb2318Z0521-600x264.png 600w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Finally, at 2318Z, the Prob Hail\/Wind\/Tor\u00a0 drop to 3\/2\/10 % respectively. These kinds of ups and downs despite any other evidence pointing to a change in organization made the products difficult to use in this case.<\/p>\n<p>Thorcaster<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At times, there is some unnatural jumpiness in the Prob Tor Product. See the time series of 0.5 base velocity and Prob Severe\/Tor below. The first image is 2310Z. The&#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2019\/05\/21\/prob-tor-prob\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read more \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":332,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[35],"class_list":["post-17488","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-news","tag-probsevere"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17488","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/332"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17488"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17488\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17502,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17488\/revisions\/17502"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17488"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17488"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17488"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}