{"id":16860,"date":"2019-05-14T17:10:57","date_gmt":"2019-05-14T22:10:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/?p=16860"},"modified":"2019-05-14T18:10:25","modified_gmt":"2019-05-14T23:10:25","slug":"probtor-reliable-lightning-says-no-mrms-says-maybe","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2019\/05\/14\/probtor-reliable-lightning-says-no-mrms-says-maybe\/","title":{"rendered":"ProbTor reliable? Lightning says no, MRMS says maybe."},"content":{"rendered":"<p>There is difficulty with having confidence of the ProbTor portion of the ProbSevere product due to an instance where it is estimating higher tor rates (8%) when a storm has no identified lightning (GLM, NLDN, and ENTI) along the coast of Florida. To be fair, the storm <em>previously<\/em> did indicate some lightning with it. I investigated the TOE, FED, and Min Flash Area in the vicinity of this storm, as well as usual point lightning data in 5 and 1 min updating intervals, and it has me confused as to what the ProbSevere is &#8220;seeing&#8221; for its lightning data (it is indicating ENTI lightning within its circle). Below is the image example of ProbSevere loaded alongside lightning data including GLM&#8217;s Min Flash Area:<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-16868\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/faketorpercentage-900x477.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"477\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/faketorpercentage-900x477.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/faketorpercentage-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/faketorpercentage-1800x953.png 1800w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/faketorpercentage-600x318.png 600w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/faketorpercentage.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>I also pulled up the lowest level rotation tracks from MRMS data, and it did indicate a slightly higher maximum within the ProbTor circle, so I believe the ProbTor is locking on to that feature.\u00a0 \u00a0&#8211; shearluck<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-medium wp-image-16869\" src=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/FalseProbTor1-900x477.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"900\" height=\"477\" srcset=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/FalseProbTor1-900x477.png 900w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/FalseProbTor1-768x407.png 768w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/FalseProbTor1-1800x953.png 1800w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/FalseProbTor1-600x318.png 600w, https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/22\/2019\/05\/FalseProbTor1.png 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 767px) 100vw, (max-width: 1200px) 60vw, 720px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There is difficulty with having confidence of the ProbTor portion of the ProbSevere product due to an instance where it is estimating higher tor rates (8%) when a storm has&#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/2019\/05\/14\/probtor-reliable-lightning-says-no-mrms-says-maybe\/\" class=\"more-link\">Read more \u00bb<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":138,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[64,51,14,15,16],"tags":[52,35],"class_list":["post-16860","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-glm","category-hwt","category-probsevere","category-pseudo-glm","category-total-lightning","tag-glm","tag-probsevere"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16860","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/138"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=16860"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16860\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16874,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16860\/revisions\/16874"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=16860"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=16860"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/inside.nssl.noaa.gov\/ewp\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=16860"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}