Live Blog – 13 May 2008 (6:00pm)

Dan M. and Ron. P. have decided to combine examining PAR data with ProbWarn operations. The PAR cut-out along I44 is causing some difficulty. Estimating storm motion in WG is also problematic as storms are moving NE and pulsing in strength and the front is slowly moving SE.

Currently they have 2 warnings going. The storm closest to PAR is decreasing in strength and instead of cancelling the warning they have decided to go with lower probs and shorter duration. The storm in SE Licoln Co continues to look strong and they have gone with higher probabilities for that warning

Kristin Kuhlman (PAR Cognizant Scientist)

Tags: None

Live Blog – 1 May 2008 (8:28-8:37pm)

MM still working with Lincoln Co storm. Appears to have intensified again, but movement more NE now. Current ProbWarn at peak around 30-40%. MM taking peak probs back up to 50% and moving to 75% at peak (10-20 min from now). Wants to use probabilities to communicate this intensification to the users… Unfortunately, WG crashed just as he was issuing this new warning–working to get it restarted*.

*data will now be in 050208 (2 May) directory since restarting WG after 0000 UTC; will have to merge files later.**

**after getting restarted and dealing with data feed issues, ending probwarn ops for the evening.

Kristin Kuhlman (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)

Tags: None

Live Blog – 1 May 2008 (8:08pm)

Tornado warnings continue for Lincoln and Pawnee Co. MM is dealing with display issues particularly with the VEL data. NWS is currently letting TOR warning expire for Lincoln Co–believe storm is weakening. ProbWarn probs have decreased to 55%–MM not completely sure storm is uncapable of producing a tornado. TV stations are reporting damage in areas of Oklahoma Co apparently associated with intermittent tornadoes from the storm.

Kristin Kuhlman (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)

Tags: None

Live Blog – 28 Apr 2008 (8:30-9:00pm)

The following entry highlights initial impressions and perspectives from the forecasters/scientists after day 1.

*workload management

– segment operations by type of threat (allows view of specific products)

– sector by storm; in current system, loss of svr thunder warning during tornado warning.

– users would find separate wind/hail products useful; overlap of products and additional information.

– increases need for interoffice collaboration if different people are issuing separate warning types.

– County Warning Areas (CWA), warnings moving into new CWA-ownership? Discontinuous probabilities at CWA borders.

*Is issuing probabilities for warnings the right direction for NWS?

– 30 min vs 3 days. (tornado vs hurricane). Possible loss of response from public with 30 min/30% tornado warning?

– user cost/loss ratio using warn-on-forecast (NWP) guidance.

– binary threshold, doesn’t always allow for conveyance of information.

– significant wx advisory/warning decision products as pre-warning updates. Same as low probability warning forecast w/long lead-time (1hr+).

– For pubic communication issue low, mod, high probability instead of specific % #’s.

– WAS*IS direction for year 2 of project, working with external groups and how the data may be used.

*First forecast today, uncertainty of development and decay of storms and not communicated well with forecast. Duration of warning lasted much longer than storm threat. Was the warning decision “good?” Are our probabilities for t=end going to be too high? Is the shape of the warning grid an accurate representation of the threat?

*More time spent on software and drawing polygons then analysis of storm and storm environment. Again, automation of initial threat area would be useful in year 2, e.g., hail=mesh & tornado=meso. Movement away from WDSSII so forecaster don’t spend as much time learning the software.

Kristin Kuhlman (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)

Tags: None

Live Blog – 28 Apr 2008 (6:50-6:58pm)

–Continued training with each forecaster on the probwarn software–

*Discussion of gridded vs current text products and information conveyed within each:

-Inclusion of checkbox for hailsize and windspeed (standardization)

— Ideas:

3/4 in hail now and golfball expected with linear interpolation.

Probability of particular size hail.

*Software: Suggestion of vector from original warning polygon to current threat at current time. With multiple warnings in close proximity to each other it can be hard to tell which polygon goes with each threat area

Kristin Kuhlman (Gridded Warning Cognizant Scientist)

Tags: None