The cell I was observing was producing infrequent lightning for much of the period in the loop with probabilities in v2 staying consistently higher than v1 before and after the lightning strikes. v1 decreased to near 0% at 21:41Z right before a strike occurred at 21:56Z although the probability in v1 increased to 10% at 21:46Z. v2 probabilities remained relatively consistent during that time frame. It seemed that with the MRMS data, it had enough reason to continue the probabilities even though the lightning was infrequent. From a forecaster’s perspective, this would give me more confidence that the storm was persisting and was continuously capable of producing lightning whereas v1, I might think that (if only relying on the LightningCast), the threat was diminishing.

4 panel comparing LightningCast v1 and Lightning Cast v2

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