I was impressed to see the evolution of AzShear and DivShear during a supercell cycling mesos. The classic AzShear dipole and DivShear clover appearance are evident to start, along with notable convergence along the leading edge of the rear flank gust front just beyond the clover. As the cycling occurs, two distinct dipoles form in AzShear, with the new one strengthening and the old one weakening. Meanwhile, the clover look in DivShear became less organized as it attempted to resolve two nearby circulations. While this process can be observed in base velocity, that may not always be the case and AzShear/DivShear proved helpful in visualizing this occurring.

TORP probabilities dropped a bit quicker than I would like to see as the cycle occurred. I don’t know if it struggled with tracking given the two nearby circulations both changing in intensity (in opposite ways – one decaying and one strengthening). In this case both weakened so the lowering probabilities were alright, but often a tornado could still be ongoing underneath the decaying meso (or rapidly spinning up under the new meso) so I would prefer to see at least medium probabilities continue a bit longer until the cycle is complete.

– Mr. Peanut