Starting off as WFO IWX

Az Shear steadily increased in Berrien County, Michigan around 2010z but did not get a TORP object. Increasing AzShear in close vicinity to the warm front prompted the SVR issuance.

Interesting how “nothing” convection over the lake gets the TORP probs, but the supercell in Berrien County with strong AzShear does not. (see below)

Example below of ground clutter high V values giving bad AzShear and DivShear data

One side note: Noticed it is harder to look for SVR wind and hail because TOPR, AzShear, and DivShear has me looking at the tornado threat more than anything else. Wondering, if products like this in future go operational, if you need to seperate tornado warning operator from a wind/hail one for the work load…

Below, TORP went way up to 57% as this got close to the warm front, div shear went up. Still waiting to see how Az Shear responds, and then SRM for Vrot

AzShear goes up, crosses the warm front, start to see Vrot organize, TORP comes in at 57%, tornado warning issued.

Storm fell apart, looks like cold pool ejected from forward flank, SRM never tightened up with respect to Vrot, TORP probs also dropped

Still no confirmed no tornado. Looked like it was dying, then took a right turn. GRR TORP remained high as the 0.5 deg scan was getting the persistent mid-level meso. IWX radar was up and down as the 0.5 low-level meso was “sloppy”. However, a right turn and potential cell merger with GRR TORP still high, decided to reissued downstream with a tornado warning.