In the training we reviewed for ProbSevere v3, it was frequently mentioned that overall the values we would see in v3 would tend to be a bit lower than in v2, which is what you’d expect in a better calibrated model. (Given what we know about storms and their potential severity, v2 often seemed a little too sure of itself, right?)

However, in looking at the relatively puny convection over Charleston’s CWA today, I’m seeing a lot of the opposite. That is, instances where v3 is noticeably higher than v2. As I think about it, I believe we’re seeing more evidence here of a better calibrated model, as it’s ultimately showing less certainty than v2 about storms not being severe which seems to make sense intuitively. We’ve all had our share of days where a storm one thinks is relatively benign ends up overperforming and though I don’t have any actual evidence to prove this, it appears that ProbSevere is, in its way, taking that into account. Ultimately, this is giving me a bit more confidence in its output.

– Earl Grey Tea