Radar imagery showed a storm form and rapidly strengthen over Guadalupe County, NM.  ProbSevere matched this intensity increase well.  The storm looked like it was going to become severe.  ProbSevere jumped to 60% at 2226Z, which was about a 40% increase in about 5 minutes.  Surprisingly, the 60% value was the same for ProbSevere Versions 2 and 3.  The modelers mentioned that Version 3 has lower values than what forecasters are used to seeing in Version 2.  Therefore, a 60% value for Version 3 is probably a higher threat than an identical value for Version 2.  That gave me more confidence considering this storm severe.

– Champion