A moderate risk for severe weather across portions of the Texas Panhandle today. Some convection is already on going along and north of a nearly stationary front stretched from the northern Panhandle into Kansas. Despite the cloud debris, the All Sky layer CAPE product still looks to be doing an acceptable job of analyzing the degree of instability present in the area. 18z values near Amarillo match well with the 18z special sounding at KAMA with values generally between 1600-2000 J/kg. The blotchiness of the all sky product between clear/cloud cover is a bit distracting, but the difference in values is a small enough magnitude that it does not compromise the forecaster’s ability to use the product.

Dave Grohl