ProbTor not showing much “Love” for Tornadic Supercell in Love Co OK

 

ProbTor showed a noticeable increase in values as the circulation on the Love County storm improved from 21:24-21:28 however there was a significant drop off at 21:34 even though the circulation from KFDR maintained its intensity and actually improved gate-to-gate. Looking at the MRMS AzShear graph you can see the same trends pinpointing the main driver in the ProbTor behavior. By 21:44 the AzShear recovered and ProbTor also returned to its previous value and continued to climb. There was some apparent “funky data” that got into AzShear to cause the unexpected drop. This emphasizes the need to have the proper products paired in AWIPS displays in order to diagnose why some algorithms may “fail” at times.

ProbSevere Time series. (http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/severe_conv/plots/PSplots.php?ID=166605)

Low Level AzShear (UL), Mid Level AzShear (UR), New Mesocyclone Detection Algorithm (KFDR) (LL), Low Level Rotation Tracks (LR) 21:20-22:14

KFDR 0.5 deg SRM 21:03-22:13.