ENTLN 5 Minute Data Very Misleading

Image 1.  AWIPS Time 1921Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1920Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 255.

3

Image 2.  AWIPS Time 1922Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1920Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 327.

4

Image 3.  AWIPS Time 1923Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1925Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 160.

5

Image 4.  AWIPS Time 1924Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1925Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 175.

6

Image 5.  AWIPS Time 1925Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1925Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 222.

7

Image 6.  AWIPS Time 1926Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1925Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 286.

8

Image 7.  AWIPS Time 1927Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1930Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 137.

9

Critical issue: The 5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot is adding new lightning data every minute and “resets” after 5 minutes.  It is NOT a 5 minute total based on the previous 5 minutes as it seems.  It is not a 5 minute running average (that could be updated every minute).  When the forecaster loads the most current frame they are getting data that is misleading.  In the case above it appears that the storm is strengthening from Image 1 to 2, then weakening from Image 2 to 3, then strengthening from Image 3 to 6, then weakening from Image 6 to 7.  In reality, it’s just the addition and reset of the 5 minute lightning data.  Not only is this misleading, but it is detrimental to forecasters trying decide whether to warn or not based on this data.  I certainly won’t use this data until it’s corrected and will pass this information on to others.  I don’t understand how someone in their right mind can find this current scheme above good.

Furthermore, the 5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot doesn’t match the AWIPS time.  In Image 3 the AWIPS Time is 1923Z, but the 5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot is 1925Z (in the future?).  Why???  In this case the 5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot should stay labeled as 1920Z and update to 1925Z after the AWIPS clock hits 1925Z.

What’s also worrisome is it appears other ENTLN Lightning minute products are “adding” new data every minute (i.e. the 5 and 15 Minute Lightning grids, etc.).  This needs to be looked into more and corrected.

How should this be fixed?  The 5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot needs to update AFTER it gets 5 minutes worth of added data.  In the example above it should work as…

AWIPS Time 1921Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1916Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) NNNN where NNNN is the previous 5 minute total from 1911 to 1916Z.

AWIPS Time 1922Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1921Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 327.

AWIPS Time 1923Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1921Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 327.

AWIPS Time 1924Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1921Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 327.

AWIPS Time 1925Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1921Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 327.

AWIPS Time 1926Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1921Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 327.

AWIPS Time 1927Z.  5 Minute ENTLN Lightning Plot 1926Z.  Pulse Count (Upper left corner) 286.

This allows me to see the total trend every 5 minutes.  Going from a Pulse Count of 327 down to 286 is more informative.

Get the point?

-Champion

 

Tags: None