Here is a good example showing the similarities in trends of ProbSevere, ENTLN total lightning data, and radar data. At 1908 UTC, lightning flash rates neared a peak and ProbSevere was ~50%. At  1919 UTC, the lightning flash rates had dropped significantly as did ProbSevere. By 1925 UTC ProbSevere quickly increased to ~75% at the same time that lightning flash rates were rapidly increasing. Finally, by 1945 UTC, ProbSevere decreased to 9% and lightning flash rates plummeted. Soon after this the storm dissipated. These types of products could help forecasters “hold onto” or “let go” of a warning sooner.

Ertel