Overview:
Today is the first day of operations for the 4th (and final) week of the EWP Big Experiment. Thus, we will begin operations in training / orientation mode.
Forecast:
In the upper troposphere, relatively zonal flow exists across the CONUS. Thus, significant moisture return has commenced, finally solving the moisture problem the Plains has seen this spring season. Vertical wind shear is relatively weak, but the presence of a strong elevated-mixed layer will augment instability and the associated probability of severe weather – especially west.
Two areas of probable severe convection exist: one in the Upper Mississippi / Ohio valley region and the other in the Southern Plains. Given the presence of upper cloudiness to the east, and the lack of a lightning mapping array, we have elected to operate in the Southern Plains today. We have localized the forecasters to two domains: Norman and Wichita.
Gabe Garfield
Week 4 Coordinator