Damaging Convective Wind Event To Affect Areas From Abilene to Throckmorton

Our first clue was the 2.5KM LAPS Theta-E image with LAPS wind and regional radar overlaid on it at 2245 UTC.2245ZLAPS_Theta-E_Wind*The tornadic Fisher Co storm was propagating southward toward the bullseye of Theta-E over Nolan Co, while the rest of the more linear convection with damaging to destructive winds was moving southeast toward an area of high Theta-E extending from Jones/Shackleford countis into Callahan/Brown counties.

There’s a chance this linear complex splits with the better tornadic part moving southward across western San Angelo’s CWA from Fisher south through Nolan and Coke counties where the OUN-WRF 0-1KM SRH forecasts values by 0200 UTC to increase over 200 m2/s2. Meanwhile, the linear activity moving toward Abilene/Throckmorton is moving into an area of 0-1KM SRH less than a 100 m2/s2 for the most part with likely more of a damaging wind/marginal hail threat.

0200UN_WRFSRH

Here is latest MESH and 60 min MESH swatch from the severe activity.

SJT_MESH*

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