Since a blog presents stories in reverse chronological order, those new coming into the blog will find my most recent stories first, even though they are intended to be later chapters. So, here is a chronological table of contents of the Experimental Warning Thoughts. I’ll update this and bump it to the top every once in a while.

Introduction

Warning Verification Pitfalls:

Part 1: Getting started

Part 2: 2x2x2!

Part 3: Let’s go fishing

Geospatial Verification Technique: Getting on the Grid

Creating Verification Numbers:

Part 1: The “Grid Point” Method

Part 2: Grid point scores for one event

Part 3: The “Truth Event” method

Part 4: Truth Event scores for one event

Part 5: Distribution of “Truth Event” statistics

The Benefits of Geospatial Warning Verification

Examining warning practices for QLCS tornadoes

Limitations of WarnGen polygons:

Part 1: Our storm escaped!

Part 2: Slide to the right

Part 3: But my threat area isn’t a 20 km square

Precise Threat Area Identification and Tracking:

Part 1: Let’s get digital

Part 2: Threats-In-Motion (TIM)

Part 3: How good can TIM be?

Warning Verification Pitfalls (continued):

Part 4: Inflating Probability Of Detection

Part 5: Inflating Lead Time