After seeing the CIRA sim imagery do very well in ABQ, we switched to FSD where the sim imagery indicated deep convection developing between 2100-2200z, but the location of the convection was about 130mi ese of where convection developed in Tripp and Lyman counties in central SD.

CIRA WRF Simulated IR 10.4 valid at 13 Jun 2100z:

GOES IR 2100z:

GOES IR 2130z:

CTC 2132z in Tripp and Lyman Co:

GOES IR 2144z:

CTC 2144z in Tripp and Lyman Co:

CIRA WRF Simulated IR 10.4 valid at 13 Jun 2200z:

GOES IR 2200z:

GOES IR 2230z:

CIRA WRF Simulated IR 10.4 valid at 13 Jun 2300z:

GOES IR 2300z:

CIRA WRF Simulated IR 10.4 valid at 14 Jun 0000z:

GOES IR 14 June 0014z: