This evening featured a supercell with large hail near GCK that merged with a line to the east and became an outflow dominated multicell event. The hail threat decreased as largescale wind threat increased. This team consisting of Bill, Craig, Cynthia and Brian focused on hail threats given their unfamiliarity with the probwarn software.

The big difficulty today is going from single to large multicell mode. Craig wonders how much longer a probabilistic warning should continue after a legacy warning expires? Bill’s worried about how to transition from isolated to large multicell threat areas? This storm underwent such a transition and they kept the single cell mode for a long time after merger began.

The team consisted of one member operating the familiar D2D for radar base data analysis while another team member operated the probwarn software. Two other team members contributed to the discussion. This setup appeared to work very well with lot’s of interaction.

Given the probabilities, what do they mean? Bill sais he’s comfortable with them because he associates high probability to his thinking when he’s doing warning decision making in the current way.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)