11-15 May 2009 Spring Experiment

I would like to thank SPC, NSSL, and others for the invitation to participate in the 2009 HWT. As most of you are aware (either through discussions with me or your experiences sitting at an airport for hours waiting for a delayed flight) the socioeconomic impacts of convective weather on the aviation industry are substantial. Attending the HWT is a way to grasp where the edge of the science is and establish a reality check for myself and to share with others as we work towards NextGen. It is an intriguing experience to learn from both operational forecaster feedback and our own forecasts we developed at HWT that the solution to increased accuracy does not correlate to higher model resolution as some might believe. Having an HWT week with an aviation focus is a good way for this research to get some exposure in a capacity that it may not have been designed for but illustrates potential utility and benefit.

I have pointed out things like Simulated Reflectivity from the HWT last year that has gained attention based on potential utility in using the data at a high level to get an understanding of what the National Airspace System scenario might look like for the day. Although it may never verify due its deterministic nature and is somewhat noisy it is good visual aid for an Air Traffic Flow Manager (non meteorologist) to get a quick frame of reference on potential systemic impacts.

Other forecasts like the Probability of >=40dbz intensity within 25 miles of point and the 18 member ensemble for 40dbz intensity could have enormous value for the aviation industry as 40dbz is also the level of intensity that aircraft no longer penetrate thus causing deviations and ultimately delays. Research on convective mode was another area I found myself intrigued with as convective mode from an aviation perspective provides a frame of reference to determine the permeability of the convective constraint. Discreet cells and linear convection can be equally disruptive but would be managed very differently if forecast with a high degree of skill so modal info for aviation is equally important as location and timing.

Thanks for a great week!

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